Interactive transcript · 170 lines
Hello, everyone.
你好，各位。
Welcome to TalkCast, your favorite weekly show where we dive deep into the world's most fascinating
欢迎来到TalkCast，你最喜欢的每周节目，我们将深入探讨世界上最迷人的
topics and break them down into clear, friendly English.
话题并将它们分解为清晰、友好的英语。
I am your host, Diana.
我是你的主持人，戴安娜。
Today, we are talking about a powerful force of nature that has been making headlines all over the world.
今天，我们正在讨论一股强大的自然力量，它一直在全世界登上各大头条。
According to the latest data from the National Climate Center, a massive El Nino event is forming in
根据国家气候中心的最新数据，一场巨大的厄尔尼诺事件正在
the equatorial Pacific, and scientists predict it could become one of the strongest El Nino events
赤道太平洋形成，科学家预测它可能成为最强的厄尔尼诺事件之一
ever recorded.
有史以来所记录的。
But what exactly is El Nino?
但厄尔尼诺究竟是什么？
How can warm water in the middle of the Pacific Ocean cause droughts in Australia, floods in South
太平洋中部的暖水怎么会导致澳大利亚的干旱、南方的洪水
America, and warmer winters in North America?
美洲以及北美洲更暖和的冬天？
To help us make sense of this global phenomenon, we are joined today by Dr.
为了帮助我们理解这一全球现象，我们今天邀请到了
Robert, a leading climatologist and senior researcher at the Global Meteorological Institute.
罗伯特，他是全球气象研究所的首席气候学家和高级研究员。
Welcome to the show, Robert.
欢迎来到节目，罗伯特。
Thank you, Diana.
谢谢你，戴安娜。
It is wonderful to be here with you and all the TalkCast listeners today.
很高兴今天能和你以及所有的TalkCast听众在这里。
This is a very timely topic.
这是一个非常及时的话题。
El Nino is indeed one of the most powerful climate drivers on our planet, and understanding how it
厄尔尼诺确实是我们星球上最强大的气候驱动因素之一，了解它的工作原理
works can help us better prepare for the unusual weather we might see in the coming months.
有助于我们更好地为接下来的几个月可能看到的异常天气做准备。
We are so glad to have you.
我们非常高兴你能来。
Let's start with the basics for our listeners who might be new to this.
让我们为可能刚接触这一点的听众从基础知识讲起。
What does the name El Nino actually mean, and where does it come from?
厄尔尼诺这个名字实际上是什么意思，它又是从何而来的呢？
That is a great starting point.
这是一个很好的起点。
The term El Nino actually means the little boy or the Christ child in Spanish.
厄尔尼诺一词在西班牙语中实际上是小男孩或圣婴的意思。
It was originally named by Spanish -speaking fishermen along the coast of Peru and Ecuador back in
它最初是由秘鲁和厄瓜多尔海岸讲西班牙语的渔民命名的
the 1600s.
在1600年代。
They noticed that every few years around Christmas time, the ocean water became unusually warm and
他们注意到每隔几年在圣诞节前后，海水变得异常温暖，并且
the fish seemed to disappear.
鱼似乎消失了。
Since it happened near Christmas, they named it El Nino.
由于它发生在圣诞节附近，他们将其命名为厄尔尼诺。
Today, scientists use this term to describe a natural climate pattern characterized by the warming
今天，科学家用这个术语来描述一种自然气候模 式，其特征是变暖
of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
中东部热带太平洋的海面温度变暖。
That is a beautiful name for such a powerful event.
对于这样一个强大的事件来说，这是一个美丽的名字。
So it starts with warm water in the Pacific.
所以它是从太平洋的暖水开始的。
But how does this warming actually happen?
但这种变暖实际上是如何发生的呢？
What is the science behind it?
背后的科学原理是什么？
To understand El Nino, we first have to look at what happens during normal years.
要理解厄尔尼诺，我们首先要看看正常年份会发生什么。
In a normal year, we have strong winds called trade winds.
在正常年份，我们有被称为信风的强风。
These winds blow from east to west across the equator, pushing warm surface water from South America
这些风从东向西穿过赤道，将南美洲的温暖表层海水推向
toward Asia.
朝向亚洲。
Because all that warm water is pushed to the west, cool water from deep in the ocean rises up along
因为所有的暖水都 被推向西方，深海的冷水沿着海岸上升
the coast of South America to replace it.
南美洲海岸来替代它。
This process is called upwelling, and it brings a lot of nutrients to the surface, which is why
这个过程被称为上升流，它给表面带来了大量的营养物质，这就是为什么
those waters are usually full of fish.
那些水域通常充满鱼类。
I see.
我明白了。
So normally, the warm water is pushed to the west, near Asia, and the cool water stays in the east,
所以通常情况下，暖水被推向西方的亚洲附近，而冷水留在东方的
near South America.
南美洲附近。
What changes during an El Nino year?
在厄尔尼诺年，有什么变化？
During an El Nino year, those trade winds weaken significantly.
在厄尔尼诺年，这些信风会显著减弱。
Sometimes they even reverse and blow from west to east.
有时它们甚至会反转，从西向东吹。
Without the strong winds pushing it westward, all that warm water starts to flow back toward the
没有强风把它推向西方，所有这些暖水开始向
east, toward South America.
向东，朝南美洲。
This stops the cool, nutrient -rich water from rising up.
这阻止了冰凉且富含营养的水上升。
As a result, the entire eastern Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than usual.
结果，整个东太平洋变得比平时暖和得多。
That makes perfect sense.
这完全合情合理。
So, the winds weaken, and the warm water sloshes back to the east.
所以，风力减弱，温水向东回荡。
Now, I often hear scientists use another term alongside El Nino.
现在，我经常听到科学家在提到厄尔尼诺时伴随使用另一个术语。
They call it ENSO.
他们把它称作ENSO。
Could you explain what that stands for?
你能解释一下那代表什么吗？
Yes, absolutely.
是的，绝对如此。
ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation.
ENSO代表厄尔尼诺南方振荡。
It is a bit of a mouthful, but it is actually quite simple.
这个词有点拗口，但实际上相当简单。
ENSO is a single large climate cycle that has three phases.
ENSO是一个包含三个阶段的单一大型气候循环。
The first is El Nino, which is the warm phase we are talking about today.
第一个是厄尔尼诺，也就是我们今天讨论的暖期。
The second is La Nina, which is the opposite cold phase, where the trade winds are extra strong and
第二个是拉尼娜，这是相反的冷相位，贸易风异常强劲，
the eastern Pacific becomes unusually cold.
东太平洋变得异常寒冷。
The third phase is the neutral phase, where everything is close to normal.
第三个阶段是中性阶段，此时一切都接近正常。
The southern oscillation part refers to the changes in air pressure and the atmosphere that happen
南方振荡部分指的是气压和大气的变化，这些变化发生在
along with these ocean temperature changes.
随着这些海洋温度的变化而发生。
It is a coupled system, meaning the ocean and the atmosphere are constantly talking to each other
这是一个耦合系统，意味着海洋和大气在不断地相互作用
and influencing each other.
并且互相影响。
ENSO is a coupled system.
ENSO是一个耦合系统。
I like that expression.
我喜欢那个表达。
It is like a global dance between the ocean and the sky.
这就像海洋与天空之间的一场全球舞蹈。
Now, according to the news, scientists are predicting that the El Nino forming right now could be
现在，根据新闻报道，科学家预测目前正在形成的厄尔尼诺可能是
one of the strongest in recorded history.
有记录以来最强的一次。
Why is this particular event expected to be so intense?
为什么预计这一特定事件会如此强烈？
Well, Diana, it comes down to several factors, but the primary indicator is just how warm the ocean
嗯，戴安娜，这归结于几个因素，但主要的指标是海洋已经
has already become.
变得多么温暖。
Since early summer, sea surface temperatures in the key areas of the central and eastern Pacific
自初夏以来，中东太平洋关键区域的海面温度一直
have been rising rapidly.
在迅速上升。
In some parts, they are several degrees Celsius above average.
在某些地区，它们比平均气温高出好几摄氏度。
This rapid warming is happening at a time when global ocean temperatures as a whole are already at
这种快速变暖发生在一个全球海洋温度整体已经处于
record highs due to climate change.
由于气候变化而达到历史最高记录的时期。
When you combine global warming with a natural El Nino cycle, they amplify each other.
当你将全球变暖与自然的厄尔尼诺周期结合起来时，它们会互相放大。
It is like pouring gasoline on a fire.
这就像在火上浇汽油一样。
The feedback loop between the warm ocean and the weak winds has become incredibly strong, leading us
温暖的海洋与微弱的风之间的反馈回路变得极其强大，导致我们
to believe this will be an extreme event.
相信这将是一场极端事件。
That sounds quite serious.
听起来挺严重的。
If this El Nino is indeed exceptionally strong, how will it change weather patterns around the world?
如果这个厄尔尼诺确实异常强劲，它将如何改变世界各地的天气模式？
What should we expect to see globally?
我们在全球范围内应该期待看到什么？
The impacts are vast and depend heavily on where you live.
这些影响是巨大的，并且很大程度上取决于你住在哪里。
Let's start with South America.
让我们从南美洲开始。
Because the warm water is sitting right next to their coast, it creates a lot of evaporation and
因为暖水紧挨着他们的海岸，它会产生大量的蒸发和
rising air.
上升的气流。
This leads to heavy rains and severe flooding in countries like Peru, Ecuador, and southern Brazil.
这导致秘鲁、厄瓜多尔和巴西南部等国家遭遇强降雨和严重洪水。
On the other side of the ocean, in places like Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southeast Asia, we
在大洋的另一边，在澳大利亚、印度尼西亚和东南亚部分地区，我们
see the exact opposite.
看到了截然相反的情况。
Because the warm water has moved away from them, there is less moisture in the air.
因为暖水已经流失，空气中的水分减少了。
These regions often experience severe droughts, heat waves, and a much higher risk of devastating wildfires.
这些地区经常经历严重的干旱、热浪，以及更高风险的毁灭性野火。
It is amazing how a change in one ocean can cause floods in one place and wildfires in another
一个海洋的变化居然能在一个地方引起洪水，在另一个地方引起野火，真是令人惊叹
thousands of miles away.
在数千英里外。
What about other parts of the world, like North America or Asia?
像北美或亚洲这样世界上其他地区情况如何？
In North America, El Nino typically brings a wetter and cooler winter to the southern parts of the
在北美，厄尔尼诺通常会给……南部地区带来一个更湿润、更凉爽的冬天，
United States, while the northern states and Canada experience a much milder and drier winter than usual.
美国，而北部各州和加拿大则经历着比平时更温和、更干燥的冬天。
In East Asia, a strong El Nino often leads to a warmer winter.
在东亚，强烈的厄尔尼诺往往会导致一个更温暖的冬天。
However, it can also disrupt the summer monsoon rains in the following year, leading to heavy
然而，它也可能打乱次年的夏季季风降雨，导致……
flooding in some river basins and droughts in others.
一些河流域发生洪水，而另一些则出现干旱。
It really scrambles the normal seasonal expectations.
这确实打乱了正常的季节预期。
This must have a massive impact on daily life.
这必定会对日常生活产生巨大的影响。
Beyond just the weather forecasts, how does an El Nino of this strength affect the average person?
除了天气预报之外，这样强度的厄尔尼诺是如何影响普通人的呢？
It affects us in ways we might not even realize, especially when we look at our wallets.
它以我们甚至可能没有意识到的方式影响着我们，尤其是当我们看到自己的钱包时。
For example, El Nino has a major impact on global agriculture.
例如，厄尔尼诺对全球农业具有重大影响。
When there are droughts in Southeast Asia, crops like rice, sugar, and palm oil suffer, which drives
当东南亚出现干旱时，水稻、糖和棕榈油等农作物就会受损，这会推动……
up global food prices.
全球食品价格上涨。
When West Africa experiences dry weather, cocoa production drops, making your favorite chocolate
当西非经历干燥天气时，可可产量下降，使得你最喜欢的巧克力……
more expensive.
更加昂贵。
Additionally, extreme weather can damage infrastructure, disrupt shipping routes, and increase
此外，极端天气会破坏基础设施，打乱航运路线，并增加……
energy demands for heating or cooling.
供暖或制冷的能源需求。
So an average consumer might notice higher grocery bills and utility costs.
因此，普通消费者可能会注意到杂货账单和公用事业成本的上升。
That is a very practical way to look at it.
这是一个非常实用的看待方式。
Even our chocolate prices can be affected by the Pacific Ocean.
甚至连我们的巧克力价格也会受到太平洋的影响。
So how do you and other climatologists keep track of all this?
那么，你和其他气候学家是如何追踪所有这些情况的呢？
How do you know when an El Nino is starting?
你们是怎么知道厄尔尼诺什么时候开始的呢？
We have an incredible network of high -tech tools today.
我们如今拥有一个令人难以置信的高科技工具网络。
Decades ago, we had to rely mostly on ship reports, but now we have a specialized system called the
几十年前，我们主要依靠船舶报告，但现在我们拥有了一个名为……的专业系统。
TAO slash Triton Buoy Array.
TAO/特里顿浮标阵列。
These are floating buoys anchored across the equatorial Pacific that constantly measure ocean
这些是固定在横跨赤道的太平洋上的漂浮浮标，不断测量海洋……
temperatures at the surface and deep underwater, as well as wind speeds and humidity.
表层及深水下的温度，以及风速和湿度。
We also use advanced satellites orbiting the Earth that can measure sea level heights and sea
我们还使用环绕地球运行的先进卫星，它们可以测量海平面高度和……
surface temperatures with extreme precision.
具有极高精度的海面温度。
When water warms up, it actually expands slightly.
当水变暖时，它实际上会稍微膨胀。
So satellites can detect El Nino just by looking at how the ocean's surface rises. Wow.
因此，卫星只需观察海洋表面的上升就能检测到厄尔尼诺。哇。
Detecting climate patterns by measuring the height of the ocean from space.
通过从太空测量海洋高度来检测气候模式。
Science is truly incredible.
科学真正令人难以置信。
Now, knowing that a strong El Nino is on the horizon, what can governments, industries, and ordinary
现在，既然知道一场强烈的厄尔尼诺即将来临，政府、行业和普通……
citizens do to prepare?
民众可以做些什么来做准备呢？
Preparation is key, and it starts with using these early warnings.
准备工作是关键，而这始于利用这些早期预警。
Governments can use our forecasts to manage water reservoirs carefully, preparing for droughts in
政府可以利用我们的预测来精心管理水库，为干旱地区做好准备
dry regions and reinforcing flood defenses in wet regions.
干旱地区做好准备，并加固潮湿地区的防洪设施。
Farmers can adjust their planting schedules or choose crop varieties that are more drought -resistant
农民可以调整他们的种植时间表，或者选择更具抗旱能力的作物……
or flood -tolerant.
或者防洪耐受的。
For ordinary citizens, it is about staying informed.
对于普通公民来说，关键在于保持知情。
If you live in an area prone to winter storms or flooding, make sure your home is prepared.
如果你住在易受冬季风暴或洪水影响的地区，请确保你的家已经做好了准备。
If you are in a drought -prone area, practice water conservation early.
如果你在易旱地区，请尽早实行水资源节约。
By acting early, we can significantly reduce the damage and economic loss.
通过及早行动，我们可以显着减少破坏和经济损失。
That is very empowering advice, Robert.
这是一个非常鼓舞人心的建议，罗伯特。
It shows that while we cannot stop El Nino, we certainly have the tools and knowledge to adapt and
这表明，虽然我们无法阻止厄尔尼诺，但我们绝对拥有去适应并……的工具和知识。
protect ourselves.
保护我们自己。
Thank you so much for joining us today and making this complex climate system so easy to understand.
非常感谢你今天作客我们的节目，并把这个复杂的气候系统解释得如此浅显易懂。
My absolute pleasure, Diana.
这是我的绝对荣幸，戴安娜。
Thank you for having me, and I hope your listeners found this helpful.
感谢邀请我来，希望您的听众觉得这很有帮助。
Stay safe and stay prepared, everyone.
大家注意安全，随时做好准备。
What a fascinating conversation.
多么迷人的对话啊。
It is truly mind -blowing to think about how connected our planet's systems are.
一想到我们星球的系统是多么紧密地相连，就真让人大开眼界。
Before we say goodbye, let us ask our listeners a quick question to think about.
在我们说再见之前，让我们向听众提出一个需要思考的快速问题。
Have you ever noticed any unusual weather patterns in your local area recently, such as an
你最近有没有注意到你当地有什么异常的天气模式，比如
exceptionally warm winter, a prolonged dry spell, or sudden heavy rain?
异常温暖的冬天、一个长期的干旱期，或是突然的暴雨？
Please write down your answers in the comments section below, or take a look at what other listeners
请在下方评论区写下你的答案，或者看看其他听众
from around the world are experiencing.
世界各地的听众正在经历什么。
It is always amazing to see how global climate trends show up in our own backyards.
看到全球气候趋势是如何在我们的后院显现出来的，总是令人惊叹。
If you enjoyed today's episode, please consider joining our Talkcast membership program, subscribing
如果你喜欢今天的节目，请考虑加入我们的 Talkcast 会员计划，订阅
to our channel, and sharing this episode with your friends and family.
我们的频道，并将这一期节目分享给你的朋友和家人。
Your support means the world to us, and helps us keep bringing you these deep -dive conversations.
你的支持对我们意义重大，并帮助我们继续为你带来这些深入的对话。
Also, a quick reminder that the full English transcript and audio for this episode, along with our
另外，温馨提示，本期节目的完整英文文字稿和音频，以及我们的
entire series, are regularly posted on our website at www .talkcast .top, and on our official WeChat
整个系列，都会定期发布在我们的网站 www.talkcast.top 以及我们的官方微信
public account, also named Talkcast.
公共账号，也叫 Talkcast。
Be sure to check them out for your English listening and reading practice.
一定要去看看，以便进行英语听力和阅读练习。
Thank you so much for tuning in to Talkcast.
非常感谢您收听 Talkcast。
Until next time, I am Diana.
直到下一次，我是戴安娜。
Keep learning, stay curious, and have a wonderful week ahead.
保持学习，保持好奇，祝你接下来过愉快的一周。
